Problems and Prospects of Demographic Reproduction in the Subjects of the Central Black Earth Region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52575/2712-746X-2026-51-1-48-58Keywords:
demographic reproduction, subjects of the Central Black Earth Region, natural population decline, migration outflow, demographic policy, depopulation risks, special military operationAbstract
Population reproduction is essential for planning social, economic, and infrastructure programs, as the future of regions and the country as a whole depends on this factor. An analysis of demographic trends helps substantiate problems and prospects, which allows allocating resources in the most optimal way and creating effective development strategies. The objective of the study is to identify key trends and factors in the socio-demographic reproduction of the Central Black Earth Region regions in the medium term and to determine its main prospects, based on emerging demographic trends and the current forecast background. The empirical basis of the article is Rosstat data reflecting the demographic situation in the Central Black Earth Region in 2019–2024, the results of an expert survey (August–September 2024,
N = 32) and focus group interviews (June–July 2024, N = 26). The study concluded that, in the medium-term demographic perspective, the subjects of the Central Black Earth Region exhibit both universal and specific trends, with the outward manifestation of demographic problems over the past decade being a decreased population, both due to natural decline and migration. The severity of these problems in different subjects of the Central Black Earth Region depends on the economic situation and geographic location, as well as the influence of the special military operation.
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